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When Russia’s ramshackle armies trundled into Ukraine a year ago, very few . After all, they’d spent eight years unsuccessfully trying to fight off pro-Russian separatists (heavily backed by Moscow) in the east of their country. Meanwhile Russia had been ostentatiously developing and modernising its armed forces and using them with decisive effect in .

Analysts – focused on Russia’s supposed “hybrid”&�Բ�����; had failed to appreciate two things. First,  and  does not an army make. Second, a , united, motivated and  makes a very formidable opponent.

Russian forces  but, behind the paint and uniforms, the military was corroded by  .

The men manning its modern equipment were led by generals who had  the essential precept that   poor performance. Troops were not trained properly, or at all, and had  of what they required to do.

Such planning should and does involve a   which they are about to plunge – this is called “intelligence preparation of the battlefield”. By the way, while western generals might  on these matters, they made exactly the same mistakes in their  in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

The signs were there early on, when units of Russia’s elite  were annihilated at  near Kyiv. It took a just month for Russia’s  to be thrown back from Kyiv.

A highly regarded Russian tank brigade was defeated by a Ukranian armoured unit a tenth of its size at the battle of  – just one of several embarrassing defeats for Moscow’s war machine.

All at sea (and in the air)

Ukrainian air defences  as the Russian air force  in all respects. They , ensuring the survival both of most of its aircraft and – vitally – an intact and superbly efficient ground based air defence system. This continues to defend Ukraine with panache.

Ukrainian airspace is , with the area above the battlefield an  where only drones venture. Russia continues to conduct a   against Ukrainian civilian targets from aircraft flying deep inside Russian territory.

Even inside Russia, at its most vital and secure bases,  have forced Russia’s most capable bombers .

In the maritime domain, Ukraine didn’t just manage to . It was also able  Snake Island, which is not only  of Ukrainian resistance, but  for the western Black Sea.

Russian ships , and usually only to fire their  before scurrying back to ports that find themselves under .

What to expect

Having  and  in a lightning assault, the lines have been drawn for the next, and decisive stage.

The war has – for now – devolved into a first world war-style slogging match, where artillery dominates.

Russia is now capitalising on its only advantage:  of largely poorly trained troops and mercenaries.  that quantity has a quality all its own, but in modern warfare there are serious limits to the validity of that axiom. It is true only if that quantity can be protected by some form of  and protection (apart from ) on a battlefield saturated by artillery.

Western assistance has been vital and will be critical in two major respects. First, Ukraine needs to  and reconstitute them along higher-quality Nato lines. Nato and other western tanks, missiles and especially precision gun and rocket systems like the  Himars, have allowed Ukraine to  in artillery.

Second, as Ukraine has taken fearful casualties including and especially in its , training will become more and more vital. As Russia discovered early in the war, equipment is of little use unless troops have been properly trained to use it. This is especially so in combined arms warfare, the extremely difficult task of coordinating infantry, tanks artillery and air power.

Ukraine will counterattack,  and will need all the help it can get if it is to drive Russian forces back to their borders.

Drawing a parallel with the second world war where the ethics for Britain and her allies were clear, this is the “” of our generation. Over the past year it has been well fought by the men and women defending their people, country and culture. They are also defending what remains of the .

Having defeated Russian forces at the battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukrainian forces now need to stave off the counterattack and demonstrate to a carefully watching west that they can retake and secure their country. Their success over the next few months will define the shape of the rest of the war, determining whether victory will come this year, or whether this will be a long and even more grinding conflict.

Last week General Mark Miley, the chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, while stating that Russia has already lost strategically, argued that neither side were likely to . If nothing else, Ukraine has demonstrated that during this phase of the war it can and will surprise us, generals, analysts and all.

They will do so again this year.

Frank Ledwidge is a Senior Fellow in Strategy Enterprise & Innovation in the Faculty of Business & Law.

This article is republished from  under a Creative Commons Licence. .